Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95b9b8ee4ff31e9e2afd03185fdf563a08838a14f1eb40dbee242f4efee38a79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 3,240$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.22 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 59c | 2,664$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.34 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 405.01$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 183.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 73c | 173.12$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 23c | 168.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 149.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 127$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4550…0f28backed No | 79c | 126.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 74c | 121.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 117.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 117.03$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 37c | 109$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 38c | 97.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 82.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 78.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…5a84backed No | 58c | 78.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 75.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 71.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 68.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 28c | 67.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 31c | 65.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 21c | 61.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 47.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…f865backed No | 60c | 45.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 73c | 42.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 41.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb762…bbfebacked Yes | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 30c | 40.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 32c | 39.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 34c | 36.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 70c | 20.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8baa…a573backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.