NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95df7568cba220c4295a7993f8e79fc76ec993fc640e38fea27c22a374873607
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Penguins, Predators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penguins | 33c | 3,227$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,153.03 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Predators | 67c | 1,315$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.38 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Predators | 68c | 1,021$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.5 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Penguins | 34c | 988.38$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.16 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Predators | 69c | 895.25$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Predators | 66c | 895.13$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.65 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Predators | 66c | 673.12$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.43 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Predators | 67c | 471.99$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.13 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Penguins | 32c | 416.56$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.26 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Predators | 66c | 219$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.54 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Penguins | 35c | 157.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Penguins | 31c | 150$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Penguins | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Penguins | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Predators | 66c | 32.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Predators vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Predators vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Predators (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.