NHL · resolved market
Predators vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc8bf6bec9e751ee66aa82fcbb05ac8031a6a2fc356314c239299f713cff5070
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe467…2f53backed Under | 55c | 23,830$12,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,839.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc446…c175backed Over | 45c | 23,563$10,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,601.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…eeb0backed Over | 46c | 23,383$10,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,745.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b9…93f9backed Under | 54c | 23,116$12,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,519.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 46c | 2,168$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.28 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 56c | 1,841$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.04 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 1,036$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.7 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…4694backed Over | 45c | 699.81$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.92 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Over | 3c | 699.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 182 | 37.9%69 W · 113 L | +29.4wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…e4f7backed Under | 55c | 667.48$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.34 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 55c | 650$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.91 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 553.56$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.28 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 413.8$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.49 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 46c | 348$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.08 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 55c | 239.33$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 45c | 192.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 41c | 179.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…11a2backed Under | 56c | 176.47$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…d53ebacked Over | 47c | 106.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Under | 56c | 99.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…2d7bbacked Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…09f2backed Under | 56c | 42.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8b…861dbacked Under | 56c | 41.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c73…36c5backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaab…a7c6backed Under | 56c | 36.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Predators vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5this page
- Predators vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Penguins won
- Spread: Predators (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.