Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95e50843e3124443a220c3e72b3ec70f60df448e4c12b624f18a64b7ab64dc34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd814…7f65backed No | 64c | 6,201$3,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,995.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 4,534$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,039.28 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 23c | 2,174$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.95 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 77c | 1,716$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.11 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 24c | 1,667$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.67 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 65c | 1,531$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.23 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 56c | 1,140$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.69 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5411…72c0backed Yes | 34c | 1,012$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 77c | 621.76$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.75 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 25c | 455.92$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.36 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…138bbacked No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 35c | 232.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.57 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…efc0backed Yes | 19c | 159.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…7960backed Yes | 23c | 117.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 77c | 110.09$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.77 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…0e6abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…f9ddbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…5a2cbacked Yes | 35c | 88.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 64c | 65.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4307…86fabacked Yes | 37c | 56.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…7b08backed Yes | 34c | 43.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…04cebacked Yes | 41c | 25.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed No | 76c | 20.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dd…a703backed No | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08?No won
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-11-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.