Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-11-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x536018eed726926e059b9ea0ac28e3602268208adff2104c84a27a7ea4be369f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 22c | 8,555$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.8 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 8,049$1,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,872.54 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…31c0backed No | 79c | 6,330$5,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 76c | 5,000$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.99 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…9a6abacked No | 76c | 4,995$3,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf7…9189backed Yes | 25c | 1,576$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 22c | 1,332$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.11 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 75c | 1,059$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.07 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 7c | 879.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 22c | 812.23$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.98 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035e…b0b7backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 19c | 485.39$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 21c | 283.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 75c | 267$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdd…69ebbacked No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed No | 77c | 202$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…5cf9backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x603a…fa61backed No | 76c | 198.67$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Yes | 23c | 195.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed No | 80c | 188.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.24per pick | 69cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 77c | 169$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…a3b6backed No | 78c | 152.03$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 77c | 131$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8a…4926backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…f9fbbacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735c…a77ebacked Yes | 20c | 101.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…306fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a7…16c5backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe561…0753backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…0e6abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Yes | 21c | 97.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…6438backed Yes | 21c | 96.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 21c | 82.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…e26fbacked No | 78c | 77.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 78c | 67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 80c | 62.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…99ebbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked No | 79c | 50.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe587…ce23backed No | 79c | 50.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…c1c2backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf526…3219backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…1dd2backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…85cabacked No | 79c | 29.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…5fd8backed No | 79c | 26.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b0…18c2backed No | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…0ab0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1449…df20backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b1…d9b2backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-11-08?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08?No won
- Will Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.