Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
California-San Diego Tritons vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x960bb826d1f2b6b90540744367fd9869da64b840363dc84ae85c79ff400f6142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- California-San Diego Tritonsof California-San Diego Tritons, Fresno State Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 54c | 6,000$3,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,230 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 46c | 4,283$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,304.92 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 37c | 2,598$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.83 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed California-San Diego Tritons | 48c | 1,971$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.23 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…abc0backed California-San Diego Tritons | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 54c | 549.99$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked California-San Diego Tritons | 79c | 506.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 254 | 38.2%97 W · 157 L | -14.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed California-San Diego Tritons | 79c | 353.78$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 155 | 57.4%89 W · 66 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 51c | 275$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.25 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked California-San Diego Tritons | 47c | 260.83$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.16 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed California-San Diego Tritons | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 51c | 215.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked California-San Diego Tritons | 56c | 170.89$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed California-San Diego Tritons | 54c | 163.82$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 30c | 118.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 53c | 92.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 54c | 54.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 27c | 46.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2316…b824backed California-San Diego Tritons | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…7245backed California-San Diego Tritons | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed California-San Diego Tritons | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.