Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x963f2682e7ddfcd31e6a4fba87efee427efcde38e5c3f0bfca715d659ce8b4e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 78c | 478.42$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 5c | 280.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 12c | 206.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 62c | 203.63$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 8c | 139.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 20c | 133.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 11c | 108.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 21c | 102.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…ac63backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 19c | 98.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ed…0d9abacked Yes | 77c | 65.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 17c | 62.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 20c | 51.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 39c | 35.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 43c | 31.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 79c | 25.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 77c | 23.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 64c | 23.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…7af3backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443e…12e1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…c67cbacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.