WNBA · resolved market
Aces vs Wings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x964e438371fee4d6e47d651ada11c568248232b0bf93daa1e65029bc90850a20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Acesof Aces, Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9716…378abacked Aces | 77c | 5,989$4,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.61 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wings | 23c | 3,990$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.55 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Wings | 23c | 2,541$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.5 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…16aebacked Aces | 73c | 1,142$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Wings | 27c | 926$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.02 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -10.3wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Aces | 76c | 700$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Wings | 3c | 671.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Wings | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Wings | 24c | 412.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Wings | 26c | 386.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Aces | 74c | 379.41$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.33 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Aces | 75c | 313.32$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Wings | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…f499backed Aces | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Aces | 78c | 252.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Wings | 21c | 182.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aces | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Wings | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Aces | 77c | 128.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Wings | 19c | 100.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Wings | 22c | 99.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 320 | 47.8%153 W · 167 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Wings | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52df…9adfbacked Wings | 22c | 58.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Wings | 23c | 56.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Wings | 32c | 49.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Wings | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Wings | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Aces | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1795…64debacked Aces | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f15…2cfebacked Aces | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…0e41backed Aces | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…c96abacked Aces | 79c | 20.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb9…38c1backed Aces | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f80…acdbbacked Aces | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae2…1734backed Aces | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Aces | 75c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.