Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96664e88a28e5e0adf2f97d0ac64ef05f0acf38df0d8471d4c4cfe8f77ddb995
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oklahoma Soonersof Arkansas Razorbacks, Oklahoma Sooners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 525.95$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.33 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Oklahoma Sooners | 45c | 467.49$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.98 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 399.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Oklahoma Sooners | 56c | 355.74$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.46 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…fb90backed Oklahoma Sooners | 54c | 310.24$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.71 | 127 | 49.6%63 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 58c | 301$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.82 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Oklahoma Sooners | 55c | 234.32$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.44 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Oklahoma Sooners | 53c | 216.23$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 56c | 214.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 293 | 37.2%109 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Oklahoma Sooners | 55c | 162.21$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 44c | 147.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Oklahoma Sooners | 56c | 100.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…18e6backed Oklahoma Sooners | 60c | 95.85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Oklahoma Sooners | 55c | 90.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd85b…d688backed Oklahoma Sooners | 47c | 78.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 42c | 60.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 43c | 59.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 42c | 48.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Oklahoma Sooners | 53c | 43.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 43c | 41.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Oklahoma Sooners | 56c | 39.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb19b…f3fabacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 47c | 34.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1736…32f1backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 29.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5)this page
- Oklahoma Sooners vs. Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks won
- Oklahoma Sooners vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 162.5Under won
- Oklahoma Sooners vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 165.5Under won
- Oklahoma Sooners vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 167.5Under won
- Oklahoma Sooners vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 168.5Under won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-1.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-2.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-3.5)Oklahoma Sooners won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-6.5)Oklahoma Sooners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.