Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x397443c29a0c14faf55164b59ff934f84a872a7420f08876cb9a182e4b202621
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oklahoma Soonersof Arkansas Razorbacks, Oklahoma Sooners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,228 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Oklahoma Sooners | 52c | 6,647$3,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,190.62 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 3,786$1,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,817.11 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 2,325$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.02 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 797.29$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.5 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 615.57$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.48 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Oklahoma Sooners | 63c | 447.76$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.25 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Oklahoma Sooners | 52c | 444.07$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.16 | 199 | 50.3%100 W · 99 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0fefbacked Oklahoma Sooners | 55c | 359.79$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.52 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Oklahoma Sooners | 49c | 347.97$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.09 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Oklahoma Sooners | 49c | 341$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.91 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Oklahoma Sooners | 55c | 299.17$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.62 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 247.82$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 241.06$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.12 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Oklahoma Sooners | 49c | 240.1$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.45 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Oklahoma Sooners | 50c | 233.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.76 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 206.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 202.41$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 28c | 198.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 47c | 197.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 186.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 165.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.51 | 293 | 37.2%109 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 72.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd85b…d688backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 39c | 69.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 61.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Oklahoma Sooners | 51c | 51.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 51.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Oklahoma Sooners | 58c | 47.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 39.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Oklahoma Sooners | 56c | 38.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Oklahoma Sooners | 47c | 38.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Oklahoma Sooners | 55c | 32.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Oklahoma Sooners | 44c | 23.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Oklahoma Sooners | 76c | 17.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-6.5)this page
- Oklahoma Sooners vs. Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks won
- Oklahoma Sooners vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 162.5Under won
- Oklahoma Sooners vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 165.5Under won
- Oklahoma Sooners vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 167.5Under won
- Oklahoma Sooners vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 168.5Under won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-1.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-2.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-3.5)Oklahoma Sooners won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5)Oklahoma Sooners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.