South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Santos FC win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9677f2152395e6ca47ca3328f0d7ca50141fa8058e69a31df76bd0347b9f6e48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 31c | 30,000$9,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,300 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 69c | 29,700$20,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,207 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 29c | 3,332$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.94 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 78c | 1,666$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.7 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…15c0backed No | 34c | 1,515$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -64%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 66c | 1,064$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.45 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 71c | 999.99$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 29c | 941.78$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.9 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed No | 17c | 850$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 70c | 780.06$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.54 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…1bf5backed No | 7c | 714.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes | 72c | 487.59$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed Yes | 66c | 458$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 5c | 432.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…33debacked No | 33c | 331.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 34c | 286.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Yes | 64c | 214.03$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 60c | 203.2$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 28c | 151.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 31c | 149.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 15c | 104.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 86 | 68.6%59 W · 27 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 40c | 86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…2303backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 27c | 66.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…91c7backed Yes | 70c | 66.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7e…da31backed Yes | 72c | 61.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 69c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 18c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 38c | 49.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 76c | 47.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…d0f6backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked Yes | 71c | 40.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…96dbbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c13…a814backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 66c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 72c | 30.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…b378backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…f100backed Yes | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…02dbbacked Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…f993backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed Yes | 71c | 18.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb08f…4ab7backed Yes | 73c | 16.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Santos FC win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-12-07?No won
- Will Santos FC vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.