Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Nürnberg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x968635fecb71649b6f77b5584df99a815634fee7dc94db2fa69ef9571c493f50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 9,508$6,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,651.85 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…7b16backed Yes | 24c | 8,682$2,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,122.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 53c | 5,044$2,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,672.41 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 47c | 4,817$2,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,563.88 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 53c | 655.76$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.55 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 31c | 328.76$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 38c | 194.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.81 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e13…c506backed No | 50c | 190.22$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x494e…de24backed Yes | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 46c | 156.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.85 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 47c | 143.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 38c | 135.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 61c | 107.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed No | 61c | 99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 49c | 97.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…a1d5backed Yes | 61c | 80.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked Yes | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 61c | 37.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 42c | 35.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Yes | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…c515backed Yes | 62c | 26.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1c…ddeebacked No | 72c | 24.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-1.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.