Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Nürnberg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa818b2f7780eb410a3fca0e273d817754b6bb1eb838814d0c868fe54aa2c9e5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 47c | 2,337$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.93 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 1,559$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.98 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 1,320$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.51 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 60c | 894.67$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.8 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 693.4$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.9 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 666.63$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.63 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 61c | 589.81$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.79 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 491.66$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.57 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 57c | 205.09$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a80…49bfbacked Over | 60c | 124.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…c121backed Under | 42c | 109.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 31c | 95.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 39c | 86.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 78.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b3cbacked Over | 33c | 57.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 70c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Under | 43c | 49.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5926…a9debacked Under | 44c | 44.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Under | 42c | 44.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 78c | 38.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 39c | 36.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…d3cbbacked Over | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 80c | 30.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Under | 72c | 28.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 80c | 24.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Over | 60c | 21.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 80c | 18.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-1.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.