Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96e5307701a94d9e66fdde7f54fc13d8ce3cb7ce577deb3fd9d44a3883bb4342
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 224.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 25c | 224.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.23 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 219.08$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…36b9backed Yes | 72c | 147.52$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 146.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 10c | 108.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 105.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 70c | 95.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 16c | 88.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 84.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 83.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 40c | 76.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 24c | 76.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 65c | 76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 48c | 70.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 76c | 65.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…079bbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 24c | 62.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 61c | 61.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 41c | 55.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c0…1191backed Yes | 55c | 51.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 40c | 50.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 47.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 28c | 47.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 41.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 40.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 34c | 40.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 75c | 40.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 29c | 39.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 75c | 30.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 27.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…2c2abacked No | 76c | 26.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…cde9backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459a…2c85backed No | 67c | 23.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 69c | 20.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 62c | 19.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 53c | 18.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.