NFL · resolved market

Texans vs. Giants

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9701113c83ca981a88f6ccec69bf84663e4fa7f01d10afd868525f83869f063e

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Texansof Texans, Giants
Resolved: Aug 17, 2024, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,676
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,118

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,676 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2f91…907fbacked Texans	63c	2,065$1,293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$771.79	128	43.8%56 W · 72 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a14…0762backed Giants	34c	1,481$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.07	102	39.2%40 W · 62 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Giants	42c	1,054$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.69	186	45.7%85 W · 101 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x530e…a4b2backed Giants	20c	602$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.4	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7cc…4952backed Texans	58c	443.81$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.4	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+5.4wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	+44.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb27d…fc9cbacked Texans	78c	422$327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.51	30	60%18 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8768…dd9bbacked Texans	78c	384.73$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.1	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	70cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Giants	44c	378$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.87	343	49.3%169 W · 174 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Texans	56c	333$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.52	99	51.5%51 W · 48 L	+6.4wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Texans	58c	218.65$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.83	207	36.2%75 W · 132 L	-13.3wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-23%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bba…d81fbacked Texans	60c	166.67$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.67	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.15per pick	48cpaid	+19%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed Giants	42c	150$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c23…6e68backed Giants	42c	150$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9796…0d9ebacked Texans	59c	110$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33b…c49abacked Texans	59c	110$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dbe…4dbdbacked Texans	59c	110$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf1b…ca89backed Texans	59c	110$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe462…3f3ebacked Texans	59c	110$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.95	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb8…266dbacked Texans	59c	110$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf8…f0d4backed Texans	59c	110$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf60a…ec06backed Texans	59c	110$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95cc…0a96backed Texans	59c	110$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde96…319cbacked Texans	59c	110$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ba…8542backed Texans	59c	110$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe131…ecf9backed Texans	59c	110$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Texans	58c	100$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	324	38%123 W · 201 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf69e…9130backed Texans	59c	95$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.55	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Texans	58c	90$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.8	99	46.5%46 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90db…46cbbacked Texans	58c	85$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.7	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	62cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed Texans	57c	60$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.8	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7bf…e0e8backed Texans	71c	56.34$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.34	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked Texans	59c	55.8$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.88	92	40.2%37 W · 55 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74dc…30e6backed Giants	41c	39.87$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.35	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa69d…40d4backed Texans	60c	33.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Texans vs. Giants

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market