Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Butler Bulldogs (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97351a20546f94f7cf2b01d2e7c7f78451a78158c5af9e82fe3970805a2387b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Providence Friarsof Butler Bulldogs, Providence Friars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5cae…a00abacked Providence Friars | 53c | 13,650$7,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,417.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Butler Bulldogs | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Butler Bulldogs | 47c | 3,340$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.8 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Butler Bulldogs | 47c | 2,409$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.19 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934e…e7c0backed Butler Bulldogs | 47c | 1,998$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Butler Bulldogs | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Providence Friars | 52c | 323.27$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.17 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Butler Bulldogs | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 270 | 45.2%122 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Butler Bulldogs | 47c | 265.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Butler Bulldogs | 47c | 247.68$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.41 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Butler Bulldogs | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Butler Bulldogs | 47c | 187.71$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.22 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Butler Bulldogs | 48c | 187$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Butler Bulldogs | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Providence Friars | 53c | 74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Butler Bulldogs | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Butler Bulldogs | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Butler Bulldogs (-4.5)this page
- Providence Friars vs. Butler BulldogsButler Bulldogs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.