Tennis · resolved market
ITF Brasilia: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Bautista de la Pena
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x975f92a97d53811e3af7271f195b9f045226b0a6c8b07d404c52f35b6cb87a8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Luis Felipe Miguelof Luis Felipe Miguel, Bautista de la Pena
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Luis Felipe Miguel | 75c | 1,376$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.64 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Bautista de la Pena | 26c | 1,024$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.88 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Bautista de la Pena | 29c | 460$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Luis Felipe Miguel | 78c | 361$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.7 | 910 | 51%464 W · 446 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…6b67backed Bautista de la Pena | 11c | 186.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe756…e006backed Bautista de la Pena | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Luis Felipe Miguel | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Bautista de la Pena | 59c | 21.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…a63ebacked Luis Felipe Miguel | 73c | 13.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.