Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97834fb3471156dd943820014783da4c98e9da286ce7b148bb8cfe063410e86f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,693 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x923c…fa1dbacked No | 2c | 745.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 485.11$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 17c | 428.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 8c | 413.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed No | 47c | 411.29$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.95 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 51c | 389.32$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.14 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 75c | 334.98$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.98 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 279.59$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.44 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 37c | 206.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.29 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 202.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 29c | 188.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 179.12$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 176$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 26c | 143.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.92 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 40c | 136.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.53 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 66c | 136.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 33c | 130$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 67c | 125.76$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 62c | 119.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 69c | 113.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 104.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 16c | 102.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 67c | 101.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ed…49a5backed Yes | 17c | 100.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…c972backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…7badbacked Yes | 57c | 99.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 26c | 88.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 36c | 84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 71c | 70.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 69.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 52c | 68.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 46c | 62.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 52c | 62.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed No | 28c | 54.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 45c | 53.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 42c | 52.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 47c | 49.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 36c | 49.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 54c | 47.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked No | 66c | 45.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 43c | 44.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…1dfbbacked Yes | 77c | 44.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 26c | 44.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 43c | 41.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 39c | 38.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 60c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 36.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 35.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…770bbacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb91…0cacbacked No | 63c | 26.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 76c | 25.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7132backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 72c | 23.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 73c | 20.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a71…fd47backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.