Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Porto vs. Malmö FF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x978e814aca4e6ff642a210bb2fbde73fe67f62f8472c3ab461f8a510ffe77370
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 20c | 5,602$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.76 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 75c | 1,342$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.68 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 17c | 1,295$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.15 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 737.35$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.34 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 18c | 401.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 78c | 228.58$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 73c | 136.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Under | 28c | 124.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 28c | 87.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 19c | 74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 19c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a33…28e8backed Over | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…20b9backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Porto vs. Malmö FF: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Porto vs. Malmö FF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Porto vs. Malmö FF: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. Malmö FF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)Malmö FF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.