Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41e059e872029cbd7d8b56802b4b920df49a3ab5bc60837b39c7de694339692f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Malmö FFof FC Porto, Malmö FF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Malmö FF | 66c | 10,774$7,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,663.22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked FC Porto | 34c | 5,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed FC Porto | 44c | 4,954$2,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,176.61 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Malmö FF | 59c | 3,494$2,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.25 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed FC Porto | 34c | 1,295$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.3 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed FC Porto | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked FC Porto | 39c | 730$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.7 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked FC Porto | 38c | 700$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…f034backed FC Porto | 34c | 700$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Malmö FF | 67c | 549.31$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.27 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed FC Porto | 38c | 546.7$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.66 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Malmö FF | 60c | 330.14$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.09 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked FC Porto | 34c | 305.88$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…1014backed FC Porto | 39c | 217.95$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed FC Porto | 39c | 128.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked FC Porto | 34c | 125$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked FC Porto | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Malmö FF | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed FC Porto | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Malmö FF | 62c | 65.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Malmö FF | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed FC Porto | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c78…1af0backed FC Porto | 34c | 52.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked FC Porto | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed FC Porto | 54c | 48.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Malmö FF | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…b859backed Malmö FF | 61c | 38.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked FC Porto | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…ae1ebacked Malmö FF | 70c | 20.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca7…1cb5backed Malmö FF | 70c | 20.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)this page
- FC Porto vs. Malmö FF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Porto vs. Malmö FF: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. Malmö FF: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. Malmö FF: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.