Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Porto vs. Malmö FF: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63e97b0496aea5c04bc5d24d6682b744ccf576ec8baba6123184beb569c78f88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 51c | 8,829$4,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,295.3 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 7,146$3,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,424.92 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 50c | 2,282$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.75 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 61c | 823.97$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.97 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 17c | 578.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 51c | 493.52$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.52 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 40c | 444$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 416.53$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.76 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 54c | 410$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 40c | 378.74$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.72 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Over | 59c | 340$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.4 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…e4bcbacked Over | 60c | 331.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 65c | 280.7$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.57 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 39c | 203.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…22cfbacked Over | 61c | 201.64$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Under | 55c | 139.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a33…28e8backed Under | 64c | 133.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 41c | 80.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Under | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 61.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…c2dbbacked Over | 54c | 53.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Over | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x408e…cacebacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 58c | 28.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 50c | 26.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca7…1cb5backed Under | 52c | 26.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a98…1071backed Over | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…ae1ebacked Under | 54c | 24.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 51c | 19.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…6d13backed Over | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked Over | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Porto vs. Malmö FF: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Porto vs. Malmö FF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Porto vs. Malmö FF: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. Malmö FF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)Malmö FF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.