CS2 · resolved market
FISSURE Playground 1: TYLOO vs. SAW
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9795432d389af9669a7a60ec618985508ef82d7c7b4c4d101b36e462351c3689
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TYLOOof TYLOO, SAW
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x008a…21a8backed SAW | 27c | 7,769$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,059.97 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked TYLOO | 66c | 3,714$2,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.53 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed SAW | 1c | 3,116$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed SAW | 8c | 2,250$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed SAW | 35c | 1,446$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.25 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed TYLOO | 73c | 1,369$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.32 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed SAW | 40c | 1,300$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked TYLOO | 62c | 1,278$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.27 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed SAW | 13c | 1,221$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.28 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed TYLOO | 60c | 1,009$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.27 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed SAW | 37c | 648.65$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed TYLOO | 60c | 583.02$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.21 | 334 | 56.6%189 W · 145 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked TYLOO | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked SAW | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked TYLOO | 75c | 193.24$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed TYLOO | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed TYLOO | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…d8bebacked SAW | 17c | 117.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed SAW | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked SAW | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 246 | 33.3%82 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed TYLOO | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 737 | 58.2%429 W · 308 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked TYLOO | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c24…0f25backed TYLOO | 60c | 66.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked SAW | 39c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 252 | 43.3%109 W · 143 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed SAW | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed SAW | 29c | 41.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed TYLOO | 74c | 36.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed SAW | 42c | 28.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.