NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97ab5a68e0d84b33220ba5de1f87937aa879e47ed259c2b9a8bf6e2e89736adb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 53c | 5,378$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,527.47 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 2,570$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.2 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 1,837$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 47c | 1,050$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.5 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 55c | 983$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.35 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…ddcfbacked Under | 47c | 812.77$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 47c | 628$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.16 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 583$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.35 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Under | 47c | 288$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…3ea6backed Under | 47c | 212.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Over | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf231…6b8dbacked Under | 47c | 21.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5this page
- Jazz vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.