NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e0f347b8ed4df96773fa565c803def819a98894f22d80ea26eb58cf5a0d2e33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Jazz | 59c | 15,000$8,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,850 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Timberwolves | 41c | 11,536$4,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,806.11 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 7,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,850 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 55c | 3,620$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.06 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 51c | 2,905$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.09 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jazz | 58c | 1,323$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.12 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd4…bbb3backed Timberwolves | 43c | 1,246$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.22 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30d0…0256backed Jazz | 57c | 1,126$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3554…9645backed Jazz | 57c | 1,123$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…ddd2backed Timberwolves | 43c | 1,003$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.71 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Jazz | 53c | 756.38$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.88 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Timberwolves | 47c | 750$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.5 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Jazz | 59c | 603$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.77 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jazz | 3c | 451.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1b…5940backed Timberwolves | 43c | 413$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…6a85backed Jazz | 57c | 385$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d4…9c99backed Jazz | 57c | 367$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfae…ff20backed Timberwolves | 43c | 339$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x957e…deb0backed Timberwolves | 46c | 255$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jazz | 54c | 255$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fea…d189backed Jazz | 55c | 254.55$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Timberwolves | 42c | 40.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Jazz | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Jazz | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)this page
- Jazz vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.