NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83da60990e8282eb407aa372a6f1c5ebbc93b79853b1d84d0d89b95f92c525a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Jazz | 50c | 13,721$6,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,860.5 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 50c | 12,746$6,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,375.61 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Timberwolves | 52c | 5,975$3,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 48c | 1,993$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.89 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Jazz | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jazz | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Jazz | 50c | 350$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 153$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 47c | 153$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Jazz | 48c | 124.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Jazz | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Timberwolves | 49c | 101.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Jazz | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Jazz | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 110 | 28.2%31 W · 79 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Jazz | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…a43fbacked Jazz | 51c | 84.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 79.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jazz | 48c | 75.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Timberwolves | 49c | 74.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…94a4backed Jazz | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Timberwolves | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 53.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…274ebacked Jazz | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…3ca6backed Jazz | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…61edbacked Jazz | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…7037backed Jazz | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…28a7backed Jazz | 52c | 34.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9f…c1a4backed Timberwolves | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…ed1dbacked Jazz | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jazz | 44c | 24.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…7e00backed Timberwolves | 56c | 24.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)this page
- Jazz vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.