TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

VMI Keydets vs. Mercer Bears

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mercer Bearsof VMI Keydets, Mercer Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,019
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,019 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfefb…4b5dbacked VMI Keydets21c3,270$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.011,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked VMI Keydets22c2,553$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.571,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Mercer Bears80c1,721$1,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.172,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed VMI Keydets23c1,305$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.72,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed VMI Keydets8c563.88$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.823,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Mercer Bears79c371.51$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.451,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed VMI Keydets21c295$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.263,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed VMI Keydets5c273.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.692,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked VMI Keydets17c251.31$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.387047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked VMI Keydets23c240$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.951,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed VMI Keydets18c239.49$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.931,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked VMI Keydets17c215.63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4614925.5%38 W · 111 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf5f…fc90backed VMI Keydets10c205.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed VMI Keydets23c157.36$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9466831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked VMI Keydets9c133.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb485…f560backed VMI Keydets23c130.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302425%6 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed VMI Keydets18c101.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.231,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked VMI Keydets24c96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.231,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95d9…3ccbbacked VMI Keydets38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked VMI Keydets26c42.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.864,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.