Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. TCU Horned Frogs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97d5973042ea1218da1d3d7939c19545b9845f7ec0df90b0764be6cd885a5c3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TCU Horned Frogsof Incarnate Word Cardinals, TCU Horned Frogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 23c | 1,771$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed TCU Horned Frogs | 75c | 1,615$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.68 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 24c | 1,159$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.57 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…b10bbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 78c | 1,129$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.07 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 27c | 1,110$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.5 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 78c | 884.67$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.18 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 3c | 799.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 74c | 749$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.8 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 25c | 516$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb9…65bfbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 5c | 425$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…1332backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 24c | 416.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed TCU Horned Frogs | 64c | 415.17$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.17 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 26c | 374.7$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 75c | 346.13$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked TCU Horned Frogs | 75c | 230.58$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked TCU Horned Frogs | 72c | 208.51$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed TCU Horned Frogs | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 23c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 29c | 189.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed TCU Horned Frogs | 72c | 185.43$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 15c | 184.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed TCU Horned Frogs | 76c | 162$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed TCU Horned Frogs | 75c | 136.97$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 98 | 71.4%70 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 64c | 124$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed TCU Horned Frogs | 71c | 98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 27c | 95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 26c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff9…bb89backed TCU Horned Frogs | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed TCU Horned Frogs | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 37c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed TCU Horned Frogs | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 449 | 55.2%248 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…fe31backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 95 | 4.2%4 W · 91 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -86%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdce4…6326backed TCU Horned Frogs | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.