Cricket · resolved market
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Japan vs Vanuatu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97d9bb53c55fa593a9a499a6f3d0c4776a0ff5354bbe6dca30d0abf5aa210dd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Japanof Japan, Vanuatu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Vanuatu | 42c | 1,546$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.97 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Vanuatu | 11c | 1,331$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.08 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Japan | 64c | 1,071$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.62 | 420 | 44%185 W · 235 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Vanuatu | 15c | 932.97$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.13 | 502 | 47.4%238 W · 264 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Japan | 72c | 545.42$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.42 | 641 | 43.1%276 W · 365 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Japan | 55c | 480.01$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.83 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Vanuatu | 12c | 461.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 310 | 50%155 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Vanuatu | 13c | 275$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Vanuatu | 14c | 201.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ef…f1a8backed Vanuatu | 37c | 134.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Vanuatu | 14c | 116.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 456 | 47.6%217 W · 239 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…d48cbacked Vanuatu | 37c | 107.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Japan | 67c | 99.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 176 | 42%74 W · 102 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Japan | 64c | 89.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Japan | 43c | 81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Japan | 72c | 71.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 652 | 50.9%332 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe28…3c60backed Vanuatu | 55c | 69.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 198 | 43.4%86 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Vanuatu | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 164 | 16.5%27 W · 137 L | -22.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x03e6…671abacked Japan | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Japan | 58c | 64.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06b7…e26bbacked Japan | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…26eebacked Japan | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 470 | 61.5%289 W · 181 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb2…a276backed Vanuatu | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Japan | 50c | 34.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Japan | 73c | 29.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb83…e6c0backed Japan | 74c | 27.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0c…1833backed Japan | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Japan | 50c | 25.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 676 | 31.4%212 W · 464 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.