Commodities · resolved market
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98045a7279a6e9e8f4eae2d0ebc740f7ba72617b65bb1bf2dfe0f0b9e780db95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,167 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x131c…6816backed Down | 73c | 910.71$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.05 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Up | 28c | 613.51$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.43 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Up | 19c | 364.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Down | 55c | 205$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Up | 53c | 203.89$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.62 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…0f7dbacked Up | 40c | 141.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…cc1ebacked Up | 8c | 133.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Up | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 82 | 4.9%4 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked Down | 40c | 99.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Up | 18c | 92.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 62c | 61.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4194…9809backed Up | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…65c9backed Down | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf6…5034backed Up | 71c | 45.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…c9d9backed Up | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Down | 39c | 36.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed Up | 60c | 33.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…79f6backed Up | 65c | 31.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…e9edbacked Down | 75c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.