Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9822b0d2be062dc13ed3b812606ed3c85dcaf43e24240cc8c9e47e74717c0b06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 65c | 2,767$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.4 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa059…dbcfbacked Yes | 35c | 2,500$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 42c | 500$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.5 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 424.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 59c | 309.16$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.81 | 596 | 25%149 W · 447 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 35c | 285.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 200.67$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.51 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 60c | 183$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 26c | 133.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 113.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 42c | 94.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 2,240 | 49.3%1,104 W · 1,136 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 33c | 83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…031abacked Yes | 38c | 73.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 72.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 72.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 41c | 68.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 71c | 68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 18c | 67.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 41c | 66.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 222 | 38.7%86 W · 136 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 527 | 43.6%230 W · 297 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 29c | 45.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 71c | 36.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 649 | 76.9%499 W · 150 L | +100.8wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 68c | 36.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 43c | 35.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 32.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 31.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 30.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2f…5026backed Yes | 40c | 25.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +56%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…d661backed Yes | 40c | 25.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +56%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…0c18backed Yes | 40c | 25.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…a644backed Yes | 40c | 25.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…963dbacked Yes | 40c | 25.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9286…2e11backed Yes | 75c | 21.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 76c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 72c | 16.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…9df0backed No | 69c | 16.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 73c | 15.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.