College Football · resolved market
Spread: Bowling (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x983ee687cd282900c1b7b35827892b27e1b71de2a8635e418b152df49cdd8f53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bowlingof Bowling, UMass
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed UMass | 52c | 53,750$27,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,897.06 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Bowling | 48c | 40,887$19,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,261 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bowling | 49c | 10,247$5,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,207.59 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Bowling | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,300 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bowling | 48c | 9,747$4,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,068.22 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed UMass | 51c | 9,454$4,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,776.35 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed UMass | 53c | 8,000$4,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,239.99 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed UMass | 53c | 2,732$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.96 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bowling | 48c | 989.79$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.69 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed UMass | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Bowling | 46c | 714.44$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.8 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked UMass | 54c | 690.74$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bowling | 52c | 516$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.8 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Bowling | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bowling | 47c | 268$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.04 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Bowling | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed UMass | 52c | 210$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Bowling | 48c | 204.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…f5a6backed UMass | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Bowling | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a2…1a06backed Bowling | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c9…6adbbacked UMass | 49c | 199$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed UMass | 59c | 198$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bowling | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Bowling | 47c | 191.48$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…5366backed UMass | 49c | 190$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ae…e071backed Bowling | 52c | 190$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f80…e668backed Bowling | 52c | 190$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e8…92cebacked UMass | 49c | 190$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bowling | 48c | 183.42$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.21 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Bowling | 47c | 180.82$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c1…6f06backed Bowling | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…88e5backed Bowling | 52c | 170$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ba…5435backed Bowling | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed UMass | 50c | 148.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Bowling | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed UMass | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Bowling | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…5829backed UMass | 51c | 86.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bowling | 48c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…84c9backed UMass | 53c | 59.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Bowling | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4862…1a17backed Bowling | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed Bowling | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Bowling | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Bowling | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e15…1afbbacked Bowling | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Bowling | 48c | 26.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Bowling | 47c | 26.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed UMass | 52c | 23.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked UMass | 52c | 23.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed UMass | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…7393backed Bowling | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bowling (-14.5)this page
- Bowling vs. UMassBowling won
- Bowling vs. UMass: O/U 44.5Over won
- Bowling vs. UMass: O/U 45.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.