Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Neftçi PFK win on 2026-07-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x985cdd9fdfb9f9ea63187063ecaa6165a047a91479dd425949ac2bb447b2431f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d11…c449backed No | 53c | 7,027$3,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,751.68 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 72c | 2,741$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.73 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 55c | 2,436$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.97 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f9…b000backed Yes | 40c | 1,651$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.78 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked No | 65c | 1,470$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebc…89c8backed Yes | 35c | 1,400$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 55c | 1,344$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.06 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 43c | 951.78$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.94 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 40c | 787.5$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.44 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 25c | 746.83$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.66 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 47c | 688.9$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.96 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 58c | 677.09$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.53 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 58c | 426.38$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.63 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7062…9f54backed No | 61c | 388.2$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed Yes | 47c | 368$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.04 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 43c | 306.64$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.44 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 58c | 299.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 34c | 281.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 42c | 228$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.32 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 60c | 191.68$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.01 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 60c | 166.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 180 | 56.7%102 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 44c | 141.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…3e10backed Yes | 40c | 137.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 74c | 130.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 73c | 126.49$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 58c | 115.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 62c | 105$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 58c | 90.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 64c | 85.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 63c | 84.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…c33dbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed No | 65c | 74.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +45%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed No | 60c | 57.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 59c | 53.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 37c | 52.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 44c | 45.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 41c | 41.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 75c | 28.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 60c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -7.5wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed No | 61c | 19.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Neftçi PFK win on 2026-07-30?this page
- Will FK Dynama-Minsk vs. Neftçi PFK end in a draw?No won
- Will FK Dynama-Minsk win on 2026-07-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.