Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x985d9c689ca245c93f32635b8a868669cf395e8b6d9afc0c45d2d94fd9418193
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 69c | 751.79$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.46 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 398.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 31c | 293.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 25c | 275.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.08 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 194.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 187.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.41 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 32c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.64 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 63c | 145.36$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…06e2backed Yes | 50c | 144.84$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 140.79$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.19 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 126.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 70c | 118.54$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 118$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 69c | 100.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 51c | 99.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 37c | 93.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 26c | 90.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 80.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…cc9dbacked Yes | 37c | 76.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 74.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 27c | 72.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 71c | 70.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 63c | 64.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 62c | 62.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 62c | 58.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 40c | 58.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 27c | 52.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 50.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 31c | 50.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 35c | 49.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 31c | 48.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 72c | 48.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 31c | 48.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 46.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 46c | 43.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 33c | 43.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 40.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 70c | 38.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 62c | 37.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 65c | 35.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 55c | 34.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed Yes | 47c | 34.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 74c | 28.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 69c | 28.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 69c | 22.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 65c | 21.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 70c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 64c | 20.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…1724backed No | 68c | 20.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 18.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 64c | 17.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 64c | 16.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 74c | 15.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 75c | 14.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.