Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x385b6661ec776bf0aad04da3177f4d9ebb661835838305e33428ada10a6fcb4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…06e2backed Yes | 64c | 533.84$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 30c | 444.58$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.02 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 398.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a2…fd96backed Yes | 8c | 371.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 210.04$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 62c | 186.11$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 57c | 172.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 165.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 150.08$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 146$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 10c | 124.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 120.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 119.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 11c | 106.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe591…b3f6backed Yes | 18c | 106.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 104.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 53c | 103.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 72c | 100.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb267…5f55backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc6…9501backed Yes | 54c | 92.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 88.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 53c | 82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 67c | 81.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 80.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 46c | 73.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 32c | 70.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 59c | 66.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ed…be89backed Yes | 35c | 66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 62.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 38c | 58.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 69c | 55.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…5e85backed Yes | 35c | 52.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 44c | 50.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 42c | 47.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa076…0e80backed No | 65c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 71c | 40.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb0…9e77backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…e850backed No | 65c | 37.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 40c | 37.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 77c | 37.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 36.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 41c | 36.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 60c | 36.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 34.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…7e66backed Yes | 46c | 32.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 55c | 31.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 50c | 30.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 28.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 27.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed No | 45c | 22.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 63c | 22.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 17.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.