Fifa International · resolved market
Will Netherlands beat Finland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x988768b66aedc06e821ddf01ca1f48256c8299aa11858ff203a8648e99d9e83d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8806…6a9bbacked No | 20c | 6,895$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 15c | 5,400$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.17 | 319 | 45.1%144 W · 175 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 80c | 4,368$3,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d18…b702backed Yes | 78c | 4,115$3,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Yes | 79c | 3,900$3,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed No | 23c | 2,440$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.12 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…38eabacked Yes | 77c | 2,184$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 22c | 2,090$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.12 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 78c | 2,071$1,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.24 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 24c | 1,311$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.31 | 168 | 35.1%59 W · 109 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 3c | 1,065$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 23c | 499.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 22c | 392.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa5…f06abacked Yes | 79c | 274.75$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 23c | 199.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +55%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Yes | 79c | 177$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…49e5backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…9160backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e5…cf32backed No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 20c | 82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f01…d2e0backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb9…f3ebbacked Yes | 77c | 60.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…8694backed Yes | 77c | 51.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 24c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb2…0a21backed Yes | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fa…c2acbacked Yes | 78c | 28.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…5dd0backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…addabacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 74c | 20.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…bef1backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19f…4597backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…8da6backed Yes | 77c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b80…cee9backed Yes | 77c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netherlands beat Finland?this page
- Will Finland beat Netherlands?No won
- Will Finland vs. Netherlands end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.