Asian League · resolved market
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x988ed267f77843513800e1b3a678933e1e9a55a27ba39f1fe542e19ff2998c40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Under | 35c | 3,687$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.57 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 1,477$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.02 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 42c | 709.57$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.33 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.24 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 61c | 390.91$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 65c | 382.44$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.37 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 28c | 282.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…6563backed Over | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 61c | 200.67$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 61c | 200.67$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Over | 61c | 192$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +10.9wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…68a0backed Over | 62c | 156.45$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad9…4859backed Over | 58c | 143.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf12…8ce4backed Over | 73c | 131.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 70c | 110.83$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 31c | 92.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 42c | 82.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 61c | 61.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 43c | 58.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 68c | 53.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x39af…1174backed Under | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 59c | 45.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 68c | 41.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…5da8backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 62c | 36.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 61c | 34.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 61c | 32.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb75a…b549backed Over | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.