Asian League · resolved market
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17325735ae66e94fb644d84f92f53dc4b1d9d9eb403606a4b819d986178aad5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 57c | 3,293$1,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,876.7 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 2,445$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.85 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 60c | 2,300$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 67c | 2,118$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.7 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fa…83f9backed Under | 1c | 1,990$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 32c | 1,639$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.52 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 42c | 1,209$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.22 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…3f0bbacked Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 49c | 398.88$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.88 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 42c | 339.16$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.29 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 57c | 240$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 39c | 234.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Over | 41c | 217$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.28 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 47c | 215.24$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…67bbbacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 61c | 169.32$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.29 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 45c | 159.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…ef0dbacked Under | 34c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…5ddabacked Over | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…5a53backed Under | 39c | 82.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 37c | 81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 67c | 57.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 32c | 56.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 60c | 51.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 41c | 48.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 39c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 44c | 46.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 50c | 27.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 43c | 26.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 45c | 26.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 61c | 25.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 45c | 23.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 50c | 22.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 57c | 21.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.