Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Jablonec vs. NK Varaždin: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98bfafdd01c9e49b7d5e2e0141e7be30f5a88ff864584486fc723ffdbac1e86d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 2,929$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,358.73 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 1c | 2,360$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 1,437$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.32 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Over | 71c | 1,405$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 44c | 1,086$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.08 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 39c | 499.98$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.99 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 496.22$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.98 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 43c | 381.06$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.36 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 66c | 354.05$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Over | 16c | 241.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 80c | 222.43$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb6…97c4backed Over | 57c | 171.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8955…3a83backed Under | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 60c | 157.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 57c | 153.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 58c | 140.49$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed Under | 14c | 138.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 44c | 131.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 57c | 123.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Over | 57c | 120.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…ef21backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…9161backed Over | 55c | 94.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 70%56 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 43c | 86.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 43c | 86.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 57c | 81.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9907backed Over | 43c | 60.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 43c | 59.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 43c | 52.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 29c | 43.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 71c | 43.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff0…0a65backed Under | 42c | 42.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 58c | 39.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e7…6716backed Under | 55c | 30.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e82…7ab7backed Under | 45c | 24.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Jablonec vs. NK Varaždin: O/U 2.5this page
- FK Jablonec vs. NK Varaždin: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FK Jablonec vs. NK Varaždin: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Jablonec vs. NK Varaždin: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Jablonec vs. NK Varaždin: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Jablonec vs. NK Varaždin: O/U 4.5Under won
- FK Jablonec vs. NK Varaždin: O/U 5.5Under won
- FK Jablonec vs. NK Varaždin: Team to AdvanceFK Jablonec won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.