Mls · resolved market
Will Columbus Crew win on 2025-09-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98c09b6f2a23800bd72c60b7b8b133b2b1005c4d9ef6197f367a0871eac98de7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 27c | 2,439$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.05 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 70c | 766.73$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.96 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 30c | 647$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.1 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 31c | 440$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 29c | 407$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 69c | 304$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 73c | 283.12$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…7f73backed Yes | 30c | 260$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 173$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…44f3backed No | 75c | 84.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 72c | 42.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 68c | 25.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Columbus Crew win on 2025-09-17?this page
- Will New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw?No won
- Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.