Mls · resolved market
Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fc6a5467baacadb1fb411174fd6a58a4c836a14139051ae1dbac0f218c94893
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 51c | 7,866$4,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,841.77 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed No | 50c | 3,012$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 52c | 1,434$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…819fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,167$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 70c | 1,129$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.04 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Yes | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Yes | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 470$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.83 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 54c | 457$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.98 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 48c | 435.83$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 55c | 413.82$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.6 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed No | 49c | 392.48$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 55c | 286$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.3 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Yes | 50c | 118.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 52c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e3…da52backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…da3bbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bd…9931backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…c8cebacked Yes | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 55c | 24.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-17?this page
- Will Columbus Crew win on 2025-09-17?No won
- Will New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.