Bundesliga · resolved market
Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98e00cb6123185fdcd85b7048ead6a19ef854e69ae30575885e3404b9ac201be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 44c | 2,163$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.63 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 1,863$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.28 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 1,192$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.94 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 58c | 900$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…cc36backed Under | 9c | 591.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 49c | 565.86$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.99 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc461…83dbbacked Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed Under | 10c | 499.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 477.98$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.75 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…a1c5backed Over | 58c | 259.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Over | 58c | 241.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 10c | 192.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 48c | 144.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 69c | 134.95$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…e32bbacked Under | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 58c | 103.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Over | 67c | 52.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7700…2d07backed Over | 34c | 44.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.43per pick | 46cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 44.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 58c | 39.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 52c | 35.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…d031backed Over | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 59c | 33.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 43c | 27.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8529…b973backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5this page
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-1.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-1.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-2.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.