Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9912c76b146a48b2e2d8d95cc3672f57d2fd4050e563d425fab6a32ad71f7e19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Birrellof Li, Birrell
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Birrell | 54c | 3,057$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.25 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Li | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Li | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Li | 44c | 516.65$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.73 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Li | 46c | 503.37$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.55 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Li | 44c | 244$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 232 | 47%109 W · 123 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Li | 45c | 119.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Li | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Li | 43c | 104.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Birrell | 56c | 102$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Li | 44c | 101$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…f5d4backed Birrell | 57c | 92.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…866ebacked Birrell | 57c | 92.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Li | 46c | 75.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Li | 44c | 35.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…a45fbacked Birrell | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Li | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed Birrell | 57c | 19.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrellthis page
- Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly BirrellAnn Li won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.