TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Capitals vs. Maple Leafs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Capitalsof Capitals, Maple Leafs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,416

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,818 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x78f1…42a4backed Capitals78c5,103$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe505…d18bbacked Capitals51c2,348$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.56357.1%36 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Maple Leafs49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.9631849.4%157 W · 161 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Maple Leafs38c1,263$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.0731334.8%109 W · 204 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefc7…d5a8backed Capitals50c1,138$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5691100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Maple Leafs1c1,100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…a4c4backed Capitals50c1,035$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Capitals55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45085148.5%413 W · 438 L-48.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdeb2…1080backed Capitals50c827.18$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Maple Leafs46c543.48$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25018136.5%66 W · 115 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Capitals54c480.67$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.111,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Maple Leafs29c412.09$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020540.5%83 W · 122 L+0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Maple Leafs52c374.16$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2719150.8%97 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Maple Leafs49c328.44$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9454349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Maple Leafs45c296.35$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4826547.5%126 W · 139 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8104…ce10backed Capitals56c283.57$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.02862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Maple Leafs44c278.51$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.0435545.4%161 W · 194 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Capitals50c250.83$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.831,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Maple Leafs6c211.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6191334.1%311 W · 602 L-27.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Capitals54c202.95$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.111,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ee4…9fd4backed Maple Leafs46c183.04$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Capitals55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8215456.5%87 W · 67 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7f…1ed4backed Capitals55c180.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.362100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+109.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7399…1e41backed Capitals47c150$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.51861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+52.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe1c3…b2a1backed Maple Leafs52c106.41$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb337…5589backed Maple Leafs47c104.35$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4948654.1%263 W · 223 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4e2…0187backed Maple Leafs47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4713953.2%74 W · 65 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Maple Leafs43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4350857.7%293 W · 215 L+0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ba…7f3cbacked Maple Leafs62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Maple Leafs44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4481846%376 W · 442 L+4.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x24fe…e52cbacked Capitals46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544440.9%18 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Maple Leafs50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050049.4%247 W · 253 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacd0…e030backed Maple Leafs50c98.65$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.32966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb299…4a62backed Capitals54c94.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.773157.5%420 W · 311 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf78f…f6a9backed Capitals51c92.16$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b46…2e93backed Maple Leafs46c91.3$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1094…d30cbacked Capitals56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.29771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Capitals50c88.39$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9672444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Capitals48c82.12$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.71,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a7b…80dfbacked Capitals50c81.52$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ba3…dc56backed Capitals49c79$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x964b…167abacked Capitals72c77.97$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.832050%10 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafa9…ab0cbacked Capitals48c76.92$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+36.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa188…3fccbacked Maple Leafs48c73.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.463154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72d6…1c32backed Maple Leafs25c67.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Maple Leafs45c67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1519647.4%93 W · 103 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe34…cf4cbacked Maple Leafs45c67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.154839.6%19 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Maple Leafs45c66.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1547249.2%232 W · 240 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Maple Leafs45c66.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1523144.6%103 W · 128 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c77…af1dbacked Capitals52c66.96$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e6…12fbbacked Maple Leafs51c65.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.34666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e09…fc91backed Capitals55c63.83$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.833756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3c…750bbacked Capitals55c63.64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.642958.6%17 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c61…f209backed Capitals51c62.35$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.31633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12bb…67bebacked Maple Leafs53c58.01$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ae7…bf06backed Capitals48c56.8$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaced…5c6dbacked Maple Leafs50c55.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.83560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1530…7bf0backed Maple Leafs50c55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1000…b1a2backed Capitals50c55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f63…3b29backed Capitals51c54.24$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.393100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ada…0639backed Capitals50c53.69$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Maple Leafs36c52.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.966951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbed3…1c84backed Maple Leafs45c52.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.52450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb654…46e5backed Capitals47c52.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c3…d16cbacked Maple Leafs49c51.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.61560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6221…73e4backed Capitals55c50.91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbfe…3adbbacked Maple Leafs48c50.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d75…c127backed Maple Leafs51c49.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.89475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+39.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c06…f3d9backed Maple Leafs50c49.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.78450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c1…a372backed Maple Leafs51c48.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaee…d5a1backed Maple Leafs51c48.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.56450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd939…9771backed Capitals50c48.11$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e14…fe9cbacked Capitals48c46.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.43683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick50cpaid+74.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x335a…99a2backed Maple Leafs46c46.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5886…1c67backed Maple Leafs53c46.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf672…c580backed Maple Leafs50c46.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a9e…6736backed Capitals50c46.59$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf589…c8d0backed Capitals49c46.56$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.74520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-59.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf196…00fbbacked Capitals50c45.83$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.042236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcea…7948backed Maple Leafs50c45.32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.66683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa37a…ba7dbacked Capitals48c45.28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.54450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd78d…60bebacked Capitals59c45.25$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5513241.7%55 W · 77 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+70.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd937…d226backed Capitals57c45.25$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ca…1511backed Capitals49c44.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.82450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c09…6573backed Capitals41c44.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.144100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+87.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f9d…861abacked Maple Leafs59c44.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83f3…0bdfbacked Capitals48c43.85$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+126.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdd0…3a4fbacked Maple Leafs45c43.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc22…cc5abacked Capitals55c43.55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c1c…2405backed Maple Leafs51c43.42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2413…2afcbacked Capitals54c43.41$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.97475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+34%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7403…fd11backed Maple Leafs51c43.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24d1…8323backed Capitals49c43.26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7bc…b614backed Maple Leafs53c43.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5519…f743backed Maple Leafs46c43.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf2b…6887backed Capitals53c42.3$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.884100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+99.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d65…9617backed Maple Leafs47c42.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.88540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eda…5f9fbacked Maple Leafs46c41.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a8…74adbacked Maple Leafs46c41.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3d…b972backed Capitals72c41.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.776471.9%46 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.