Movies · resolved market
Will "The Investigation of Lucy Letby" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x993c72c90b1ad505e69808930a483b92d57ee54dd9e2e16aa2287473dec33bcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 1,097$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b5…3481backed No | 13c | 689.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 7c | 528.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 70c | 392$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 38c | 131.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…4027backed Yes | 50c | 97.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 40c | 87.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 36c | 85.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…175bbacked Yes | 40c | 79.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 39.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…5124backed Yes | 59c | 36.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 57c | 23.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Investigation of Lucy Letby" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)this page
- Will "Copshop" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)No won
- Will "Queen of Chess" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)No won
- Will "The Rip" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.