Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: 100 Thieves vs. Shopify Rebellion
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x994d35efe6dc90bc6f8f200c4b503f87fdd981f74abc545af80046cfc2e857c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shopify Rebellionof 100 Thieves, Shopify Rebellion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Shopify Rebellion | 37c | 8,306$3,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,256.94 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed 100 Thieves | 55c | 4,736$2,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,596.77 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked 100 Thieves | 63c | 2,946$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.88 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…1742backed Shopify Rebellion | 30c | 1,497$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.67 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed 100 Thieves | 70c | 1,497$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.67 | 484 | 48.6%235 W · 249 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked 100 Thieves | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 91 | 27.5%25 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Shopify Rebellion | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Shopify Rebellion | 80c | 728.67$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.99 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked 100 Thieves | 72c | 400$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…a28dbacked Shopify Rebellion | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…3ea6backed 100 Thieves | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Shopify Rebellion | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed 100 Thieves | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked Shopify Rebellion | 45c | 154.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048d…a493backed Shopify Rebellion | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Shopify Rebellion | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 168 | 28.6%48 W · 120 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b26…6900backed Shopify Rebellion | 60c | 56.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Shopify Rebellion | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 618 | 49.8%308 W · 310 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.