Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9957673fcadfc932be6ea66a86132b5dfbe6353f0ba88bb666e55f3f1873acd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Vici Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,363 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacce…72e8backed Vici Gaming | 63c | 1,582$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit | 43c | 1,501$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.32 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115f…e217backed Vici Gaming | 57c | 1,100$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.99 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Vici Gaming | 1c | 920.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Vici Gaming | 58c | 884.43$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.72 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Team Spirit | 43c | 760.47$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.47 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Team Spirit | 42c | 409.48$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Team Spirit | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Vici Gaming | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Team Spirit | 25c | 285$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.75 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Vici Gaming | 23c | 279.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed Team Spirit | 50c | 219.58$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.9 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Vici Gaming | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Team Spirit | 43c | 198.36$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.07 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…5473backed Team Spirit | 42c | 125.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed Team Spirit | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47b8…76f2backed Team Spirit | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Team Spirit | 64c | 87.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Vici Gaming | 51c | 68.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Team Spirit | 55c | 52.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…aeb9backed Team Spirit | 42c | 48.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…fdc8backed Vici Gaming | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Vici Gaming | 57c | 37.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Vici Gaming | 44c | 34.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Team Spirit | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Team Spirit | 43c | 32.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…535dbacked Vici Gaming | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Vici Gaming | 55c | 30.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Team Spirit | 78c | 27.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…d677backed Team Spirit | 42c | 26.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Team Spirit | 50c | 20.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.