TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Vici Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$649,279

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $649,279 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbf3…b218backed Team Spirit65c83,036$53,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,067.316147.2%76 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Vici Gaming35c57,504$20,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,126.2828748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Vici Gaming35c49,813$17,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,428.9355157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Vici Gaming36c33,067$11,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,750.832231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Spirit65c21,474$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,473.7654556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Team Spirit65c14,581$9,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,160.2311854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Spirit65c14,444$9,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,055.432854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Vici Gaming35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.988242.7%35 W · 47 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Spirit65c7,886$5,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,760.3196557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Vici Gaming34c7,772$2,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.595431.5%17 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Spirit65c7,663$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,663.1948954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Team Spirit66c7,388$4,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,521.666043.3%26 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Vici Gaming6c6,978$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.0640014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Team Spirit68c5,918$4,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,883.6312560%75 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Vici Gaming36c5,492$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.866637.9%25 W · 41 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed Team Spirit64c4,672$2,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,682.1411359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit75c3,858$2,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.712,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Vici Gaming12c3,396$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.2750832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Spirit63c3,035$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.8836041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Vici Gaming33c3,004$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.3622643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Spirit64c3,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.9879959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3f40…e1f2backed Vici Gaming36c2,800$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0084932.7%16 W · 33 L-7.0wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-35.1%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x4533…ef2bbacked Vici Gaming23c2,620$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002050%10 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Vici Gaming8c2,582$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.5638049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Vici Gaming37c2,555$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.4211346.9%53 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec14…5a4ebacked Vici Gaming20c2,468$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-70.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Vici Gaming31c2,313$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.357424.3%18 W · 56 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-42.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Vici Gaming35c2,200$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.91,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Vici Gaming33c2,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Vici Gaming34c1,877$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.777941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Spirit65c1,854$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.4152243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed Team Spirit64c1,706$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.086349.2%31 W · 32 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Team Spirit63c1,681$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.979153.8%49 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf657…f8d0backed Vici Gaming28c1,620$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.753342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Vici Gaming17c1,603$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.2660646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Team Spirit65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.468845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Vici Gaming23c1,418$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.9771454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Spirit65c1,266$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.2460349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x959f…9e2fbacked Team Spirit75c1,246$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.841163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Vici Gaming17c1,174$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019959.6%59 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked Vici Gaming36c1,080$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.821350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked Vici Gaming11c1,020$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6813732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Vici Gaming37c1,019$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.41050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Vici Gaming36c999.99$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.995259.6%31 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb17a…c30dbacked Team Spirit63c999.94$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.983060%18 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Vici Gaming19c952.98$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.3224251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x363a…4a8dbacked Team Spirit72c938.62$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.558258.5%48 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Vici Gaming13c929.51$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8413020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Vici Gaming1c902.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2163032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3c6…54cbbacked Vici Gaming14c899.98$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1305246.2%24 W · 28 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+38.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Team Spirit69c893.67$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.9538653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf138…c953backed Vici Gaming12c874.96$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.610134.7%35 W · 66 L-11.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Team Spirit65c860.67$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.3426550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Vici Gaming5c858.6$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0299844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Vici Gaming34c833.98$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.556647%31 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Vici Gaming36c833.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30025457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Team Spirit76c819.38$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.8812156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Vici Gaming18c812.56$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7377458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5395…687abacked Vici Gaming20c799.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.792254.5%12 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Vici Gaming13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2570…9fe2backed Vici Gaming20c757.11$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+57.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Vici Gaming31c746.29$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23048539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Vici Gaming22c710.33$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6631245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Vici Gaming14c700$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9565625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Spirit68c699.99$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22423050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf96f…b5e5backed Vici Gaming36c693$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.484341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Vici Gaming9c680.36$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8292056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Vici Gaming36c678.93$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.413540%14 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Vici Gaming29c651.96$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19014251.4%73 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Spirit77c643.72$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.9946649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Vici Gaming4c625.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.953423.5%8 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Team Spirit65c618.71$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.7114657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Team Spirit70c615.66$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.762650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Vici Gaming8c600$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.56132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Spirit64c598.8$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.5739660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Vici Gaming34c597.33$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.0965441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Vici Gaming28c595.94$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.181,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed Vici Gaming35c571.4$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0640…1cd6backed Vici Gaming36c556.96$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-49.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Vici Gaming36c548.18$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.251154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+28%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc03e…da65backed Team Spirit64c545.3$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.316650%33 W · 33 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Spirit64c524.62$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.522,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5565…e5d6backed Team Spirit65c512.22$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.283764.9%24 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked Vici Gaming17c499.92$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8840745.5%185 W · 222 L-1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Vici Gaming5c495.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.666169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c0…23d8backed Team Spirit77c494.94$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9423957.3%137 W · 102 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Vici Gaming3c494.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6733845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b67…642dbacked Vici Gaming4c465$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.76224.2%15 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c77…6747backed Vici Gaming2c454.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104314%6 W · 37 L-9.2wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-73.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x688e…148dbacked Team Spirit66c454.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.553154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed Team Spirit64c450.53$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.1912966.7%86 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Vici Gaming6c443.03$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7123546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79b6…3799backed Team Spirit71c441.57$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.752040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Vici Gaming12c428.6$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4933041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Team Spirit64c401.01$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.368946.1%41 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Vici Gaming37c400$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14857735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Vici Gaming15c400$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4660552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Vici Gaming16c385.8$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6352649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Vici Gaming37c378.19$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9353844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Vici Gaming34c352.69$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.213455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.