Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Nacional win on 2026-08-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9978b3bc515d067b4a868d8cfc452cf0c771a484e8cd72112914eb995a7d71f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked No | 50c | 2,433$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 53c | 1,790$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.75 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked No | 48c | 590.15$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.27 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 50c | 350$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 56c | 233.79$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.47 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 20c | 196.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 51c | 180.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 50c | 178.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes | 51c | 124.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…261abacked Yes | 47c | 103.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e03…aa34backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 64c | 55.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…ce9bbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 53c | 43.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c06…84a9backed Yes | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 50c | 33.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 460 | 44.3%204 W · 256 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Yes | 53c | 26.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 126 | 64.3%81 W · 45 L | +16.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…d67fbacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…3302backed No | 55c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 72c | 16.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Nacional win on 2026-08-16?this page
- Will CD Nacional vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw?No won
- Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-08-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.