Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Nacional vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x455d459746de10b632a3727fc69551f34975b2e1592ea65cc55852efe7d93e05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 28c | 1,974$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.57 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…02d2backed No | 66c | 1,893$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.6 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 1,866$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.51 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 78c | 1,652$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.34 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 34c | 1,574$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.92 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 379.83$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…fb15backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 63c | 306.66$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked No | 71c | 196.21$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 196.14$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Yes | 39c | 124.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 60c | 99.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 64c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 90 | 64.4%58 W · 32 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 28.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 71c | 19.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 338 | 53.3%180 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 78c | 19.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Nacional vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Nacional win on 2026-08-16?Yes won
- Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-08-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.