Middle East · resolved market
US military action against Hezbollah in Lebanon by Monday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x998d97e6c03de2e16f867161b5e105e7160ff232888b9864fe38668c17e02394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 2c | 7,654$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.09 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 2c | 5,566$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc5…3f96backed Yes | 2c | 3,995$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 4c | 3,534$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.36 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114f…686cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,642$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 2c | 2,207$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes | 2c | 1,355$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0496…d6d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…c470backed Yes | 2c | 999.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 3c | 795.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed Yes | 2c | 617.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…408cbacked Yes | 2c | 564.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 4c | 499.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…2290backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 3c | 385.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes | 5c | 204.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…2beabacked No | 70c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.